CANADIAN EOPLE PATTERNS
Roger Sauve
Saskatoon (Sask.), Western Producer Prairie Books, 1990. 150pp, paper, $16.95
Volume 19 Number 1
This book is a well-organized collection of population statistics and projections that will enable readers to develop a greater understanding of the demographic characteristics of Canada both now and in the future. Statistics have been unfairly grouped with 'lies" and "damn lies" as things to be mistrusted. It is illogical to dispute accurately gathered facts, and any dispute we might have can only be with the interpretations placed upon them. Sauve uses data from recent government and private publications to examine the present situation and the likely effects of the movement of today's population through the age divisions into the future. The book looks at a variety of topics such as education and the labour market and projects the effect upon each of these areas of the evolution of Canada's population. In these projections, the author posits a "most likely" scenario, which takes into account both existing data and the impact of future trends. For example, in projecting population, Sauve assumes the fertility rate will fall to 1.2 children over the next twenty years. Such projections depend ultimately upon interpretation of known facts. However, the future, which in many respects can be ascertained from present knowledge, will also be influenced by factors unknown at present that could engender considerable deviations from any existing forecast. It is in the area of forecasting that the reader may question some of Sauve's suggestions. Predictions in the field of demography and allied social sciences, which have been made since pre-Malthusian times, have not always proved accurate. The structure of this book is very interesting. After a brief introduction, the book is divided into over fifty "People Patterns." These are two-page summaries of sub-topics of demographic interest. These summaries consist of a page of text and one of graphs. As a final summary there are two theoretical individual biographies extending into the future. Within the text there is occasional cross-reference from one "People Pattern" to another. The book is well produced with few proof-reading errors. One error which will encourage young men is that in 2001 there will be "105 females for every male." There is a list of graphs but no index; however, the table of contents provides a sufficient guide for the reader. This reference book is a source of engrossing information and prophesies. It should find an interested readership in any educational institution above the elementary level. John D. Crawford, Marigold School, Victoria, B.C. |
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